Volume 1, No. 22. November 30, 2001
Casting for answers
Maybe Cleo, the television psychic,
should get a booth at next year's IAAPA Trade Show. The commodity most in demand
among this year's buyers and vendors was a glimpse of the future, especially
an accurate forecast of how next year will bode for the industry. While the
quest for future vision is a by-product of business and always heightened at
trade shows, never has the question "whither go we?" so dominated an IAAPA Trade
Show as it did in Orlando this month. Cleo would have had a line longer than
that at the booth serving Nathan's hot dogs. Even if her tarot claims are dubious,
her psychic methods could be no more nor less believable than the scientific
surveys and think-tank conclusions being offered at various sessions during
the show; and you can't argue her entertainment value.
But we do need to rightly address the question, a serious one, brought on by
the convergence of two troubling events: a general economic downturn and the
September 11 terrorist attacks. Most prognosticators agree the former will have
more profound impact on consumer activity next year than the latter. Some experts
see the economies starting off 2002 slowly but booming by spring; others, many
inside the amusement industry, believe the current malaise in expansion won't
turn around until next fall, at the earliest. The terrorist attacks, undoubtedly
pushed wavering spenders into more conservative attitudes, and the lingering
fallout—namely, security-conscious air travel—will dictate family
vacation plans next year.
Overall, the impact could be a wash for most facilities. Even the destination
parks in Florida and Southern California, which suffered up to 25 percent attendance
drops in the summer and fall, could bounce back to post strong 2002 numbers
based on marketing efforts aimed at their local and drive markets. In response
to 9-11's inevitable disruption of distant travel plans, the Orlando Convention
and Visitor's Bureau hooked up with Universal Orlando and SeaWorld to do a 15-city
tour of the Southeast United States. Both parks are offering special discounts
through AAA (a drive clientele), including free vouchers for $20 worth of gas
for patrons visiting both SeaWorld and Busch Gardens Tampa. Those properties
along with Universal-owned Studios, Islands of Adventure and Wet 'n' Wild have
extended the value of their FlexTicket, both in number of days and with free
round-trip transportation from selected Orlando hotels to Busch Gardens. Walt
Disney World, meanwhile, is offering an additional 100 days free for Florida
residents who purchase an annual pass.
Ironically, the primary message in these regional efforts is that this is the
best time to visit these popular theme parks because crowds are slim. And by
flexing their marketing muscles for regional consumers, the big theme parks
are going after those consumers who have boosted attendance at small parks and
attractions the past few years. Still, the overall pie could be larger for everybody
in 2002.
Around the world, domestic travel will probably increase next year. Parks in
the United Kingdom are gearing up for record attendance in 2002; while foreign
tourists don't tend to visit the parks on tours of the country, Britain's population,
staying home next year, are more apt to visit the parks than historic landmarks.
The rest of Europe will likely see the same trend: the half dozen new theme
parks opening across the continent couldn't have picked a more promising debut
year. Japanese tourists are currently staying home in droves. The only market
that may continue overseas tours is the Middle East, which could further bolster
European attractions and help maintain Australia's tourism numbers.
As for the United States, the Travel Industry Association of America presented
at one IAAPA session survey results indicating that consumers' travel plans
remained largely unchanged after September 11. But the trends toward more regional-based
vacations had already started, and three-fourths of travel in the United States
is done by auto. The travel sector most impacted by the terrorist attacks was
business travel, accounting for a total drop off of as much as 39 percent, according
to the International Air Transport Association. Overall, the association is
anticipating a 3 percent increase in travel next year over this year, though
still well below the levels of the year 2000. And that, as presenter Andrea
Stueve said, is "if nothing else happens."
A big if, but one attractions can yet capitalize on. U.S. facilities can take
advantage of two heightened emotional strains coursing throughout the country:
patriotism and family ties. Already tourism marketers are pushing a "See America"
message, and the Travel Industry Association surveys say heritage sites are
at the top of Americans' destination preferences. Even if regional and small
parks can't wrap themselves in Americana/nostalgia bunting, they can still stress
their family entertainment values with a subliminal message of security.
Neither the recession nor the terrorism threat has waylaid a truism about 21st
century humankind: people want to have fun. Worldwide park attendance this summer
and strong performances for Halloween-themed venues in October prove that, and
those are the strongest indicators so far that 2002 will be a good year for
parks.